By integrating tools like strategic foresight into their planning processes, organizations can better navigate uncertainty and position themselves for success. In a previous article, Heightened Development explored how adaptive planning distinguishes itself from traditional strategic planning by focusing on flexibility and preparing for uncertainty. In this article, we will explore an adaptive planning process known as strategic foresight, with a deeper dive into scenario planning as one essential foresight tool.
What Is Strategic Foresight?
Strategic foresight helps organizations prepare for the future—not by predicting it, but by exploring different ways it could unfold. Unlike traditional planning methods that assume a linear path forward, strategic foresight takes a broader, more flexible approach, embracing the uncertainties that can shape future outcomes.
Some key tools within strategic foresight include:
- Horizon scanning – Identifying early signals of change and emerging trends.
- Trend analysis – Examining the trajectory of key factors that could impact your organization.
- Delphi method – Gathering expert insights to forecast potential developments.
- Scenario planning – Building and exploring plausible future scenarios.
Among these, scenario planning is especially practical and easily engages your team and stakeholders in the planning process.
“The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future, but to make better decisions in the present.”
– Peter Schwartz
What Is Scenario Planning?
Scenario planning involves creating narratives about possible future environments and exploring how an organization might respond. For example, a nonprofit addressing climate change could use scenario planning to prepare for different policy landscapes, ranging from aggressive climate action to regulatory stagnation.
By developing different potential narratives, organizations can:
- Identify and evaluate risks.
- Discover strategic opportunities.
- Test how different outcomes might impact operations and build adaptable strategies for various plausible futures.
Historical Use
Peter Schwartz, a well-known futurist and author of The Art of the Long View, famously used scenario planning in the 1970s with Royal Dutch Shell. This approach helped Shell anticipate the 1973 oil crisis, allowing the company to stay ahead while competitors struggled.
Nonprofits can apply this same approach to anticipate shifts in funding, policies, or social trends, ensuring they are better prepared for potential challenges.
How Nonprofits Can Use Scenario Planning
Nonprofits often operate with limited resources and high uncertainty. Scenario planning helps by:
1. Defining Key Uncertainties
Focus on the external forces most likely to affect your mission.
For example, an education nonprofit might consider:
- How government funding changes could impact programs.
- The role of new classroom technologies shifting the landscape.
2. Creating Scenarios
Develop three to four different narratives based on key uncertainties.
For example:
- Scenario A: Increased government funding and rapid tech adoption.
- Scenario B: Funding cuts and slower tech integration.
- Scenario C: Stable funding with a surge in demand for hybrid learning models.
3. Exploring Implications
Analyze how each scenario impacts your goals and stakeholders.
- Does one scenario present a funding gap?
- Could another reveal new opportunities, such as expanding digital learning programs?
4. Building Flexible Strategies
Develop adaptive strategies that hold up in multiple scenarios.
- For instance, if funding is uncertain, forming partnerships could help diversify revenue streams.
5. Staying Alert
Continuously monitor changes in your environment. When a particular scenario starts unfolding, adjust your strategy accordingly.
Easy Steps to Get Started
If you’re ready to try scenario planning in your nonprofit, here’s how to begin:
- Form a Team – Gather a mix of perspectives from staff, board members, and external partners.
- Define Your Scope – Decide how far into the future you’re planning and which areas to focus on. Are you planning for the next five years or preparing for a more immediate change?
- Host Workshops – Facilitate brainstorming sessions to identify uncertainties, create scenarios, and test strategies.
- Use Visual Tools – Bring your scenarios to life with diagrams, storytelling, or role-playing exercises.
- Integrate with Strategic Planning – Scenario planning shouldn’t stand-alone—tie it into your overall strategic planning efforts.
Real-World Applications
The Independent Sector has a great article on how scenario planning helped a cultural organization successfully re-open its doors after major disruptions.
For further exploration, the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific developed a Foresight Playbook, offering valuable insights into strategic foresight and scenario planning.
If you’d like support with strategic planning, adaptive planning, or scenario planning in your nonprofit, schedule a consultation with Heightened Development here.
